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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."