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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.