🔗 Share this article

It was two months prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.

According to Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus United.

His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the force he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.